Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 12.894167 14.738193 16.737986 19.065946 21.699615 24.584886 27.983592
2024-10-20 9.991212 12.417746 15.260388 18.829102 23.182268 28.312191 34.808591
2024-10-27 8.094765 10.621227 13.731928 17.830867 23.076410 29.549849 38.129549
2024-11-03 7.239646 9.957064 13.450135 18.249046 24.648239 32.862676 44.179684
2024-11-10 6.586872 9.436436 13.238286 18.652488 26.131335 36.060163 50.197435
2024-11-17 5.853881 8.709285 12.652247 18.456351 26.737537 38.075009 54.710455
2024-11-24 5.195737 8.006484 12.013617 18.095512 27.035811 39.626495 58.616464
2024-12-01 4.745041 7.553428 11.676843 18.114022 27.839142 41.893750 63.630937
2024-12-08 4.429117 7.267229 11.549976 18.412893 29.047020 44.786146 69.697953
2024-12-15 4.111775 6.944869 11.333350 18.543005 29.986420 47.310493 75.337172
2024-12-22 3.766684 6.543581 10.955492 18.380324 30.441993 49.103549 79.934761
2024-12-29 3.529306 6.295813 10.797232 18.545734 31.409469 51.720076 85.938617
2025-01-05 3.383164 6.195394 10.880196 19.125869 33.110324 55.634516 94.316351
2025-01-12 3.110642 5.851562 10.528952 18.950948 33.548614 57.541474 99.554633
2025-01-19 2.725775 5.270920 9.722716 17.926907 32.465858 56.859337 100.425363
2025-01-26 2.610373 5.171006 9.747451 18.353859 33.902486 60.460259 108.709427
2025-02-02 2.500496 5.070771 9.761451 18.757265 35.314885 64.087358 117.227268
2025-02-09 2.315694 4.810194 9.461020 18.560813 35.630883 65.818355 122.511552
2025-02-16 2.126093 4.523008 9.087713 18.197794 35.610711 66.941205 126.757295
2025-02-23 2.000592 4.352983 8.923371 18.216482 36.294806 69.353561 133.448622
2025-03-02 1.917808 4.263050 8.906726 18.516933 37.525626 72.820411 142.249921
2025-03-09 1.821913 4.137157 8.808746 18.647752 38.432739 75.728545 150.153716
2025-03-16 1.702408 3.950255 8.573311 18.484195 38.748179 77.532966 156.053456